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Wednesday, December 2, 2020 | History

4 edition of Tourism forecasting and the Delphi technique found in the catalog.

Tourism forecasting and the Delphi technique

Tourism forecasting and the Delphi technique

a case study

by

  • 36 Want to read
  • 17 Currently reading

Published .
Written in English

    Subjects:
  • Tourism -- Canada -- Forecasting,
  • Market surveys -- Canada

  • Edition Notes

    Statementby Jhana Kiyomi Shimizu.
    The Physical Object
    FormatMicroform
    Paginationx, 171 leaves
    Number of Pages171
    ID Numbers
    Open LibraryOL13552128M
    OCLC/WorldCa24631641

    mand forecasting—“top-down” or “bottom-up.” The top-down approach begins with the largest aggregates of economic and statistical data (usu-ally national totals) and seeks to provide a gen-eral picture of aviation demand spanning the country and the entire system of air travel routes and facilities. Once the aggregate forecast has been. The demand for travel to a particular destination area is a function of various market socio-economic and time factors. These are identified using multiple regression. Simulation models combine trend line extrapolation and regression techniques and relationships between many variables specified through interrelated equations.


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Tourism forecasting and the Delphi technique Download PDF EPUB FB2

Delphi technique, tourism. implement or analyse tourism related research. This book aims to address this divide by integrating theory with practice through the inclusion of specific tourism. Delphi Method Definition The Delphi Method is a structured process for collecting and distilling knowledge from a group of experts by means of rounds of data collection interspersed with selective feedback.

Relevance If you are seeking to garner opinion about an aspect of tourism, its quality management processes for example. The Delphi technique, named after the ancient Greek oracle and conceived by the RAND Corporation in the s, is a method for exploring complicated, uncertain topics unsuitable for more exact analyses due to limitations like unavailable historical information or time series data.

The Tourism forecasting and the Delphi technique book Delphi technique is a method of collecting the opinions of a group of experts, who remain anonymous through a series of questionnaires and feed-backs in successive stages, expert panel retaining anonymity until the end of the study.

The technique follows to. This paper analyses published research on Delphi forecasting in tourism and hospitality, explores how the Delphi forecasting method has progressed over the past four decades in terms of topical areas, empirical applications, and issues of reliability and validity, and is thus expected to advance understanding of the Delphi technique, providing topical and methodological recommendations for researchers and industry practitioners for producing accurate by: This paper analyses published research on Delphi forecasting in tourism and hospitality, explores how the Delphi forecasting method has progressed over the past four decades in terms of topical.

The findings suggest that the Delphi technique and scenario writing are the two most popular judgmental forecasting methods used in tourism studies. Few tourism studies. A Delphi Evaluation of Agreement Between Organizations Chester G. Jones (k) Business and Industry Delphi Delphi Research in the Corporate Environment Lawrence H.

Day (k) Plastics and Competing Materials by A Delphi Forecasting Study Selwyn Enzer (k) A Delphi on the Future of the Steel and Feroalloy Industries.

Details of the Delphi evaluative studies are summarised in Table 1, Table 2. Table 1 describes the characteristics of each experimental scenario, including the nature of the task and the way in which Delphi was constituted.

Table 2 reports the findings of the studies plus ‘additional comments’ (which also concern details in Table 1).Ideally, the two tables should be joined to form one Cited by: In addition to introducing expert opinions (mostly using the Delphi method which is a well-known communication technique widely used for forecasting through an iterative process with a panel of experts [51] [52] [53] and is also a useful means of determining key factors, especially those with uncertainty [54]).

The method relies on the key assumption that forecasts from a group are generally more accurate than those from individuals.

The aim of the Delphi method is to construct consensus forecasts from a group of experts in a structured iterative manner. A facilitator is appointed in order to implement and manage the process. COVID Resources. Reliable information about the coronavirus (COVID) is available from the World Health Organization (current situation, international travel).Numerous and frequently-updated resource results are available from this ’s WebJunction has pulled together information and resources to assist library staff as they consider how to handle coronavirus.

This article lays out the basic structure of Tourism forecasting and the Delphi technique book Delphi method, along with common modifications, and recently developed mixed-model forecasting techniques. Delphi offers a basic structure that can be easily adapted to fit a group's needs, with respect to specific judgmental forecasting efforts.

The ETC/UNWTO Handbook on Tourism Forecasting Methodologies aims to be a simple guide to the complex world of tourism forecasting. It presents the basic forecasting techniques, their advantages and disadvantages as well as some practical examples of such methodologies in action.

It also includes a CD where the forecasting methodologies are 4/5(1). Building on the success of 'Practical Tourism Forecasting' this text looks at 13 methods of forecasting and with a user friendly style, 'Forecasting Tourism Demand' guides the reader through each method, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses and explaining how it can be applied to the tourism industry.

'Forecasting Tourism Demand' employs. Forecasting is the process of predicting certain future events or conditions by analyzing the available information. Forecasting plays an important role in tourism development, marketing, and operations development in tourism can be traced back to the s.

Building on the success of 'Practical Tourism Forecasting' this text looks at 13 methods of forecasting and with a user friendly style, 'Forecasting Tourism Demand' guides the reader through each method, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses and explaining how it can be applied to the tourism industry.'Forecasting Tourism Demand' employs charts and tables to explain how to:* plan a Cited by: Over the past decades a majority of tourism researchers have published many papers that reviewed demand forecasting methodologies.

But most of them have concentrated on quantitative methods rather than qualitative methods and there is a huge gap in.

The Delphi Technique is a method used to estimate the likelihood and outcome of future events. A group of experts exchange views, and each independently gives estimates and assumptions to a facilitator who reviews the data and issues a summary report.

The group members discuss and review the summary report, and give updated forecasts to the 4/5(2). The Delphi method is a forecasting process framework based on the results of multiple rounds of questionnaires sent to a panel of experts.

Several rounds of questionnaires are sent out to the group of experts, and the anonymous responses are aggregated and shared with the group after each round.

The Delphi method or Delphi technique (/ ˈ d ɛ l f aɪ / DEL-fy; also known as Estimate-Talk-Estimate or ETE) is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts.

The technique can also be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE). The Delphi torecasting technique is used to forecast tourism to Hawaii, particularly Oahu, by the year Local experts and travel agents were questioned on visitor arrivals and percentage of domestic arrivals to Hawaii, market share, visitor-to-resident ratio, maximum visitor accommodation and desirable growth rates, and probable scenarios for Oahu by: Forecasting: The Key To Successful Human Resource Management (Eddy Madiono Sutanto) Delphi Technique This technique calls for a facilitator to solicit and collate Written, expert opinions on labor forecasts.

In choosing a forecasting technique, the following factors should be considered. Using Delphi technique to build consensus in practice Lefkothea Giannarou Delphi technique was firstly introduced by Rand Corporation in and evolved as a ‘consensus’ tool in It was based on the assumption that ‘group judgments’ are more reliable than Thus, Delphi is used in forecasting tasks when there is.

One solution is to use a structured group technique, such as Delphi, for eliciting and combining expert judgments. In using the Delphi technique, one controls the exchange of information between anonymous panelists over a number of rounds (iterations), taking the average of the estimates on the final round as the group by: ~1~15 lN Dl DELPHI A REPLY D.

Rowlands Unilever Research Laboratory, Sharnbrook, Bedford The author argues that, in his criticism of the Delphi Technique in the June issue of Long Range Planning, Mr. Overburyl confuses Technological Forecasting with Long Range Planning, and he is concerned that the Delphi Technique cannot do his long range planning for him.

78 FIRST OF ALL LET US Cited by: 4. Forecasting Tourism Demand: Methods and Strategies By D. Frechtling Oxford, UK: Butterworth Heinemann Table of Contents List of Tables i List of Figures Preface Acknowledgments 1 Introduction 1 What this book is about The scope of tourism The importance of tourism demand forecasting Alternative views of the future Forecasting definitions.

The quantitative forecasting technique concerns numerical data that focuses on the projection of customer trends towards other parameters of the business whereas qualitative forecasting techniques are used through gathering experts’ opinions for forecasting any figure and undertake any strategy related to performing a business function.

Practical Tourism Forecasting [Douglas Frechtling] on *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. Practical Tourism Forecasting is the first step-by-step guide to forecasting tourism demand. It emphasizes how alternative forecasting methods organize information about the past to shed light on the future.

It highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each of 13 different forecasting Cited by: Delphi Method. The most primitive method of forecasting is guessing. The result may be rated acceptable if the person making the guess is an expert in the matter.

An important thing to note is that guessing is the only method where we can make use of tacit knowledge that the specialist has not been able to express as exact words or numbers.

Forecasting is the process of making predictions of the future based on past and present data and most commonly by analysis of trends. A commonplace example might be estimation of some variable of interest at some specified future date.

Prediction is a similar, but more general term. TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE 7, () The Methodological Worth of the Delphi Forecasting Technique KIM QUAILS HILL and JIB FOWLES ABSTRACT Focusing on the general issues of reliability and validity, several specific problems evident in reported applications of the Delphi method to forecasting are by: practice for implementing this technique, we can derive general principles for using expert opinion in forecasting.

Since its design at the RAND Corporation during the s, the Delphi technique has been widely used for aiding judgmental forecasting and decision making in Cited by: Technology forecasting attempts to predict the future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or chers create technology forecasts based on past experience and current technological developments.

Like other forecasts, technology forecasting can be helpful for both public and private organizations to make smart decisions. The Delphi method, scenario building, statistical surveys and composite forecasts each are judgmental forecasting methods based on intuition and subjective estimates.

The methods produce a prediction based on a collection of opinions made by managers and panels of experts or represented in a survey. Time Series Forecasting Methods.

The best method of forecasting tourism demand is: a. time series and secular trends. Delphi and mathematical models used together. gravitation models. computer systems models.

multiple correlation regression models. Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: Modern Econometric Approaches makes a welcome and timely contribution in updating the existing methodology on tourism demand modelling and forecasting.

It serves as a useful reference for research students and academics in tourism as well as industry practitioners in the field who are interested in Format: Hardcover.

HISTORY:The name "Delphi" derives from the Oracle of DelphiThe Delphi method was developed at the beginning of the Cold War to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. InGeneral Henry H. Arnold ordered the creation of the report for the U.S. Army Air Corps on the future technological capabilities that might be used.

Start studying Fashion Forecasting Midterm Part 2. Learn vocabulary, terms, and more with flashcards, games, and other study tools. What is the name of the book author John Naisbitt wrote that was the first trendspotting book to become a bestseller. The Delphi method is associated with which research strategy used by long-term forecasters.

Given the actual demand ofa previous forecast of 99, and an alpha of.4, the exponential-smoothing forecast for the next period would be _____ According to our ppt discussions when there is a trend in the actual demand for a product then using any moving average forecasting method or simple exponential smoothing would result in.

The Delphi technique for judgmental forecasting by expert groups is described and the controversy surrounding its use is summarized. The technique clearly does not eliminate all unwanted psychological effects on group judgment.

Furthermore, the design of most Delphi studies makes it impossible to separate the signal from the noise in expert Cited by: The Delphi method is one of the basic tools for forecasting values in various types of issues. It uses the knowledge of experts, which is properly aggregated (e.g., in the form of descriptive statistics measures) and returns to the previous group of experts again, thus starting the next round of forecasting.

The multi-stage prediction under the Delphi method allows for better stabilization of Author: Marcin Lawnik, Arkadiusz Banasik.executive judgment (Delphi)**forecast demand. Executive Judgment (Delphi) Method = systematic survey of tourism experts (executives), can take into consideration hard to measure variables, experience and personal judgement ***most useful and often produce accurate results.